Oil jumps as Goldman Sachs boosts price forecast by a third

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02 February, 2018

USA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.8 million barrels from the previous week: for the first time in almost three months.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging higher early Friday.

In November 2017 - the latest month for which full numbers are available - crude oil production reached 10.038 million barrels per day. The producers agreed in December to extend current oil output cuts until the end of 2018.

Goldman Sachs has been noted in the past as having a bullish outlook on the global oil market.

However, Goldman expects the price to dip again as US shale producers pump more oil to benefit from the price reaction to lower global inventories.

WTI prices have been on an upward trend since February 2016. From August through September, gross inputs to refineries in the Gulf Coast region fell by 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d), a 13% decrease.

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Antidumping and Countervailing Duty laws) are successful because the evidentiary thresholds are so low. Delta ( DAL ), which is the only USA airline to purchase the C series, also praised the decision.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 32.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, the survey found, up 100,000 bpd from December. However, this agreement is supporting the oil price and stimulated shale oil production. USA oil prices are hovering near $66 a barrel, well below the 2014 peak of $107 a barrel, but more than $20 a barrel above the $42 in mid-2017.

"The rebalancing of the oil market has likely been achieved, six months sooner than we had expected", the bank's analysts said in a report, as it revised higher its global demand growth forecast to reflect surging imports from emerging markets. China, in particular, started buying up large volumes of USA oil in 2017.

Today, crude oil is gaining to recover some of the gains it had yesterday. The average cost of a gallon of regular unleaded in the Houston area increased to $2.28, up 20 cents from a year ago, while the national average rose to $2.57 a gallon, up 31 cents over the year, according to GasBuddy, which tracks fuel prices nationwide.

West Texas Intermediate futures added 0.8% in NY. The decline in Venezuelan production is also providing support.

Most crude exports leaving the U.S. Gulf are passing through the Caribbean anyway before sailing for Asia or Europe.

The bank forecast returns from S&P GSCI enhanced commodity index at 7.4, 14.7 and 10 percent for 3, 6 and 12 months, respectively.


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